By Emma Murphy, Oklahoma Voice
OKLAHOMA CITY – Fertility rates in Oklahoma and around the nation are on a “decades long downward trend” which has the potential to create state budget shortfalls, according to a report from Pew Charitable Trusts.
The average fertility rate per 1,000 women in Oklahoma dropped by 12.2% since 2011 and is at 59.1 births in 2023, the report found. The national average fell by 10.6% in the same time frame and is at a record low of 54.5 births per 1,000 women.
In a 17-state region, that also includes Washington D.C., Oklahoma had the second largest drop in its fertility rate.
Factors contributing to the decline include fewer teen pregnancies, women having children later in life and less births following economic recessions, according to the report.
No states saw growth in fertility rates.
“Historically, fertility rates have dipped during economic downturns but tended to recover as conditions improved,” according to the report. “… That pattern broke after the 2007-09 Great Recession when fertility rates fell and never bounced back. The downward trend instead intensified in 2020 as the start of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to a record annual drop nationwide.”
Lower fertility rates may lead to short-term economic benefits in areas like health care and education, but could create broader, long-term issues as states generate less revenue through tax collection because of fewer births, according to the report.
David Hamby, spokesperson for the Oklahoma Policy Institute, a nonpartisan Tulsa-based think tank, said the overall environment for raising children in Oklahoma could be a factor in these declines.
Oklahoma ranked 46th in the nation for overall child well-being in the annual Kids Count report from the Annie E. Casey Foundation which ranks all 50 states in four categories. The state ranked in the bottom 10 for children’s health, economic well-being, education and family and community.
“I think anyone who is looking at having children or raising children in Oklahoma will see that environment and cause them to second guess that decision to either delay or not have children at all,” Hamby said.
The Pew report found that teen pregnancy rates have been falling since the 1990s, which was attributed to greater education and use of contraceptives as well as more abstinent teens.
Oklahoma’s teen pregnancy rate has fallen, according to this year’s Kids Count report, but is still higher than the national average.
An average of 21 Oklahoma teens, aged 15 to 19, per 1,000 gave birth in 2023, down from 27 in 2019. Nationally that rate was at an average of 13 teen births in 2023.
People are also choosing to start families later in life, the Pew analysis found.
Births to Oklahoma mothers younger than 24 have all fallen since 2007, but the share of births from mothers ages 25 and up have grown.
“We have folks getting older, but we’re having folks who are not having children,” Hamby said. “So the population is, as a whole, getting older.”
This means there will be a greater demand on state dollars for elder services, without continued investments in those services from the Legislature, he said.
The strain on the Oklahoma state budget could be exacerbated by a lack of federal investments in shared programs and services, Hamby said, and states will eventually have to step in to fill the gaps in services.
“If state lawmakers continue to keep revenue flat we’re going to have more demands on the same amount of dollars just to keep at the level that we are at,” he said. “And that math doesn’t math very well for the long term.”
There will be significant changes to Oklahoma’s funding landscape, Hamby said, and the population change is “only a precursor” to what’s coming.
